The Philippine national men’s basketball team has enjoyed what has been an almost ideal path to the championship rounds. They got a favorable draw in the preliminary group stages – one that even allowed them the margin of error of a surprising opening day loss to Palestine and still clinch the No. 1 seed of Group E after a sweep of the second round.
Gilas had a difficult matchup with Iran, but it was one they had been preparing about a month for. In the knockout rounds, they also drew some respectable but very beatable opponents in Lebanon and Japan.
It has been a little odd that the Philippine team – so often the underdog – look like a legitimate favorite that’s been there before for much of the tournament.
But the true test, despite the stiff challenge presented by defending champion Iran, was always going to be the hometown team China, for so long the bullies in Asian continental basketball. In this tournament, China has gone unbeaten, boasting of a winning margin of almost 23 points per game.
Against China, the Philippines will again be the underdog, the team out to earn the respect of the region. Against China and its hulking new frontline, they’re going to have to play bigger than themselves, faster than themselves, better than themselves.
If the Philippines was going to reclaim its spot as the No. 1 team in Asia, it was going to have to be like this – a character game against a powerhouse team.
THE STAKES
Everything.
The FIBA Asia Championship trophy. The title of best team in Asia. The lone automatic berth to the 2016 Rio Olympic basketball tournament.
Everything is at stake in this game and both teams know it.
THE STARTERS
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The Philippines has used a stable starting lineup with plenty of veteran savvy. Naturalized player Andray Blatche and 2013 FIBA Asia Best Point Guard Jayson Castro anchor the team’s offense. Blatche has been averaging 17.9 points and 9.8 rebounds while Castro isn’t far behind with 17.8 alongside 2.8 assists.
They are flanked by a number of veterans in the starting unit. Ranidel De Ocampo and Gabe Norwood – alongside Castro – have both been serving as part of the national team since 2013, competing in the FIBA Asia and the FIBA Basketball World Cup the following year. The fifth member is 38-year-old captain Dondon Hontiveros, who has been to many international tournaments as well.
On the other side, though, is a unit that epitomizes China’s youth movement. They have an average age of 22.6 years old.
7-foot-1 teenage sensation Zhou Qi is all of 19 while the backcourt is usually composed of 20-year-old Zhao Ji Wei and 22-year-old Ding Yanyuhang. Their most senior members are former NBA player Yi Jianlian (27) and captain Zhou Peng (25).
It will be an interesting clash of styles when China’s tall, long, athletic lineup takes on the skill and smarts of the Gilas five.
THE SCOUTING REPORT
Yi is still China’s best player, averaging team-highs of 17.4 points and 8 rebounds per game. He has shown skill, physicality, athleticism and even a bit of a nasty edge in this tournament, probably making him one of the top contenders for tournament MVP.
As a team, China has been an efficient offensive unit that knows how to get the ball in the hands of the right people at the right spots.
They have a bunch of terrific athletes running the guard spots, including point guard Guo Ailun, who is their second-best scorer and their top assist guy (at four dimes per game). His ability to get to the rim opens up a lot of space for shooters like Zhou Peng and Li Gen, who are both shooting over 50% from three-point range.
They’re also have some great, young big men that are emerging as strong offensive options. Zhou Qi and Wang Zhelin have been pretty effective for China despite their combined ages still being younger than the Philippines’ Asi Taulava.
A look at their shot chart shows that they know where they want their shots to come from and that’s in the paint and outside the arc – some of the most efficient spots in basketball.
They’ve been great at distributing touches as well. Their three players with the most two-point attempts – Yi, Guo and Zhou Qi – are combining to shoot 61.2% from that area while their three highest-volume shooters from beyond the arc – Zhou Peng, Li and Zhai Xiaochuan – are sizzling at 50.6% from three-point range.
It’s not wonder that this Chinese team has been dominating the offensive end, putting up an Offensive Efficiency rating of 119.8, which is really, really high. They not only shoot a great percentage from the field, they mop up a lot of their misses as well (grabbing nearly 40% of available rebounds on their offensive end) which leads to an offense that scores nearly every time they bring the ball up.
THE PREDICTION
This will be a very difficult test for Gilas Pilipinas. China has a very good team and will have the support of what should be a capacity crowd (of 7,000) at the Changsha Social Work College Dayun on Saturday.
China, for most of the FIBA Asia, has been playing like the best team in the competition. But in a one-game knockout, Filipinos know that anything at all can happen. Gilas will enter the game the underdogs but don’t believe for one second that they don’t think they can win this game.
They will undoubtedly bring the ‘Puso’ in this one final game – one that could cement the legacies of not only this Gilas team but each individual player that labored to be part of it.
Whether that will be enough against China, will remain to be seen.
Source: Mikkel Bolante of Interaksyon.com
